From the Cincinnati
Enquirer
WASHINGTON - Campaign money is pouring into
the 2nd Congressional District - but not to Rep. Jean
Schmidt.
According to reports filed recently with the Federal
Election Commission, Schmidt has raised $95,900 in the
past three months. After expenses, the Miami Township
Republican has $85,170 in the bank.
What's unusual is that Schmidt, the incumbent, raised
considerably less money in the second quarter - and has
less in the bank - than any of her opponents: Republican
Phil Heimlich and Democrats Victoria Wulsin and Steve
Black.
"Maybe it's something going on within the GOP to
switch candidates?" said Dave Lane, chairman of the
Clermont County Democratic Party. "Her campaign against
Vic, there was such a narrow margin, it pretty much
exposed her weakness to everyone, to the Democrats but
also to her own party." Schmidt squeezed out a 1
percentage point victory over Wulsin in 2006, in a
district that had previously been solidly
Republican.
Herb Asher, an Ohio State University political
science professor, said the numbers show not only that
Schmidt is vulnerable, but that her campaign is being
targeted by both Democrats and members of her own
party.
"They will face a major, major battle next year,"
Asher said.
Schmidt won her seat in a special election in 2005 to
replace Rob Portman, who was tapped by President Bush to
become U.S. trade representative. That year, Schmidt won
an 11-candidate GOP primary and scored a narrow victory
over Democrat Paul Hackett, an Iraq war veteran. She
beat Wulsin this past November.
Barry Bennett, Schmidt's chief of staff, said the
congresswoman's campaign is not concerned.
"We're 18 months from the election. I think we're
just fine," Bennett said, noting that Schmidt only
recently hired a full campaign staff, so he expects next
quarter's report to show improved fundraising.
It'll have to if Schmidt is to raise what's needed to
keep her seat. According to the nonpartisan, nonprofit
Center for Responsive Politics, Republican incumbent
House members spent an average $1.5 million on their
re-election campaigns last year. Schmidt spent $1.9
million last year, compared with Wulsin's $1
million.
Wulsin, an Indian Hill doctor, is hoping her early
start will help her overcome the financial advantage
that Schmidt had last time around. Wulsin raised
$213,583 during the past three months and has about the
same amount of cash on hand.
"I am starting earlier, and I am starting stronger,"
Wulsin said.
After paying off most of the loans she made to her
campaign, Wulsin still owes herself $1,500.
Schmidt is still out the $277,150 she loaned her
campaign during the last election cycle, which Bennett
said he doesn't expect she'll repay. He said the $32,000
debt her current report shows to two area law firms was
paid after the report was filed, meaning that she has
less money in the bank than her report indicates.
Schmidt's other Democratic opponent, Black, raised
$209,500 from April 1 to June 30, including $58,320 that
he personally loaned his campaign. After expenses, the
Indian Hill lawyer had $208,514 in the bank.
"I am very serious about this race," Black said in a
release. "I will do what it takes to win."
Heimlich, who will challenge Schmidt in the GOP
primary, raised $166,384 during the past three months
and, after expenses, has $141,069 in the bank. Heimlich,
a former Hamilton County commissioner, did not loan his
campaign any money.
"Clearly, these early numbers indicate a desire for
change," Heimlich said in a news release announcing the
numbers.
In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Steve Chabot
maintained a hefty fundraising lead over Democratic
challenger Steven Driehaus, according to their FEC
reports.
Chabot raised $300,085 during the second quarter and
had almost $414,000 in the bank. Driehaus, a state
representative from Cincinnati, raised $165,610 in the
last period, leaving him with about $158,000 in the
bank.
Mean Jean, as she's
known to those who
hate her, holds a
special place on the
Democrats' hit list
for 2008. Her
tendency to say
anything, no matter
how inflammatory or
off the wall, her
lackluster showing
in last November's
elections and her
less-than-stellar
fund-raising have
convinced Democrats
that next year they
will send her home
for good.
"She, of
course, is one of
our top targets -
mostly because of
who she is,'' said
Ryan Rudominer, a
spokesman for the
Democratic
Congressional
Campaign Committee.
"Obviously, it's
not a very easy
district for
Democrats to win.
But because of Jean
Schmidt's time and
time again voting in
lockstep with
President Bush and
because of her wild
antics in Congress,
we see that seat as
extremely winnable
in 2008.''
Even Republicans
think Schmidt is in
trouble. Recently
disclosed documents
show that White
House political guru
Karl Rove has put
the Miami Township
congresswoman on a
list of the most
endangered House
Republicans.
Republicans are
so worried that they
could lose Schmidt's
seat that there's
talk she might be
challenged by
someone in her own
party.
"The general
consensus is either
the Republicans are
going to get rid of
her or the Democrats
are going to get rid
of her,'' said state
Rep. Tom Brinkman,
who ran against
Schmidt during a
special election in
2005. "What
Republicans are
talking about is we
need to stand up and
find somebody to
eliminate her or
we're going to lose
the seat. That's
what the talk is.
Everywhere. Except
maybe in Jean
Schmidt's
household.''
Nonsense, said
Schmidt spokesman
Barry Bennett.
Schmidt's
approval rating
among Republicans is
higher than ever,
even higher than
President Bush's,
Bennett said, citing
an internal poll. He
declined to release
the poll numbers,
but said the survey
was taken in January
by a reputable
pollster out of
Washington.
Schmidt squeaked
by Democrat Victoria
Wulsin last
November, winning
re-election by just
2,500 votes. Wulsin
already has
announced plans to
take on Schmidt
again next year. But
Bennett insists that
2006 was an anomaly
and that Schmidt
will do much better
against Wulsin in
the next go-round.
"If they're
looking to waste a
bunch of money, then
they should pour it
into Ohio's 2nd
District,'' Bennett
said of Democrats.
"What happened in
Ohio in 2006 was the
perfect storm. But
2008 is not 2006.
The economy is
better. A lot of
things are better.
Turnout is going to
be totally
different.
Republican turnout
was suppressed by
significant margins
(last year). They
are all going to
turn out to vote in
the (2008)
Republican
presidential race.''
Schmidt reported
raising just $20,000
in the first quarter
of this year - a
paltry sum compared
to what other
incumbents have
already pulled in.
But Bennett said the
congresswoman held
no fund-raisers
during that period,
and the money she
did receive "came in
simply because we
are here.''
By election time,
Schmidt will
probably raise more
than the $2 million
she brought in
during last year's
race, "which is gobs
of money,'' Bennett
said.
But gobs of money
may not be enough to
keep Schmidt in
Washington, given
that she seems
inflicted with a
clinical case of
foot-in-mouth
syndrome, Brinkman
said.
She had been in
office a mere two
months when she
implied on the House
floor that
Pennsylvania
Congressman John
Murtha, a decorated
war veteran, was a
coward. More
recently, she
infuriated veterans
when she wrote in a
column that reports
of dilapidated
living conditions at
Walter Reed Army
Medical Center had
been overblown.
Brinkman served
with Schmidt when
she was in the Ohio
legislature and
doesn't even try to
hide his contempt
for her. He said
he'd like to be the
one to challenge her
in the GOP primary
but thinks the party
must settle on one
candidate who can
beat her and then
rally around that
person.
"I've always said
I dislike her,''
Brinkman said. "I
try not to hate her
because hate
possesses people.
But I see people who
do hate her. Boy, do
they hate her."
Michael Collins
is The Post's
Washington bureau
chief. His e-mail
address is collinsm@cincypost.com.
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